Politics of Indigenous peoples in the West

Indigenous communities increasingly influence energy, security and electoral dynamics across the Americas.

Oct. 13, 2025: Native American tribes held a Pow Wow in downtown Detroit, Michigan. The city was originally called Waawiyatanong and recognizes the day as Indigenous People’s Day, while the U.S. federal government observes it as Columbus Day. © Getty Images

While there is significant diversity among the Indigenous populations of the Western Hemisphere, in every subregion, policies toward these groups are affecting issues ranging from energy and the environment to transnational crime and issues of sovereignty. Yet, their importance is often underappreciated and not well-integrated into effective national policies.

In the current era of geopolitical realignments and resource competition, conflicts between state priorities and tribal preferences are being exacerbated. The Arctic offers one important example of how these dynamics play out. How governments choose to approach these issues will be critical in their ability to manage the complex and increasingly multipolar global environment.

Diverging Indigenous political trends in the Americas

In the United States, there are about 3 million Native Americans and roughly 7 million people identify as multiracial with some Indigenous lineage. The vast majority, about 80 percent, do not live on reservations. The largest Indigenous populations are in Alaska, South Dakota and New Mexico. There are about 1 million eligible voters from this demographic, with about 60 percent of them registered as voters. Nationally, this is not a significant voting bloc, but their numbers can be influential in some swing districts, such as Michigan, giving this specific group unique importance that should be considered in electoral modeling.

In the 2024 national elections, many ethnic groups moved rightward; Native Americans were among them. Seventeen counties with majority-Native American populations swung toward candidate Donald Trump by 10 or more percentage points. Just as with Black and Hispanic voters, Native Americans had concerns that extended beyond the identity politics of the Democratic Party and the Kamala Harris campaign. Across the country, a whopping 65 percent of Native American voters went for Mr. Trump.

As with other ethnic groups, however, much of this swing occurred, arguably, without significant engagement from the conservative movement, and may or may not represent a permanent shift in Native American voting preferences.

In Canada, Aboriginal (Indigenous) people number about 2 million, which is 5 percent of the population. The country recognizes three distinct groups of Indigenous peoples: the Inuit of the Arctic region; the Metis, people of mixed Aboriginal and European ancestry; and First Nations, all Aboriginal people who are not Inuit or Metis. All three groups are growing faster than the non-Indigenous Canadian-born population. The First Nations are the fastest-growing native demographic in the country (the immigrant population is expanding the most out of all groups), with numbers increasing 9.7 percent to over 1 million between 2016 and 2021. In the same period, the Inuit population grew by 8.5 percent to 70,545 and the Metis by 6 percent to 624,220.

In addition to their fast growth, the Indigenous play an outsized role in Canadian governance, affecting economic development, property and legal rights, national security and public safety. Unlike in the U.S., in Canada there is a growing left-right split on Indigenous issues, though those gaps vary based on region and province. About two-thirds of the Indigenous vote in Canada goes to the left-wing New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party, while about one-third vote conservative.

In Latin America, Indigenous people number between 42 and 58 million people, representing 8 to 10 percent of the population. National percentages vary greatly, with the highest being in Guatemala and Bolivia at over 40 percent. Quality of life for Indigenous peoples across the region varies greatly. Colombia and Ecuador have the highest poverty rates for Indigenous people in Latin America, with 64 percent and 50 percent respectively.

Indigenous politics in Central and South America have long been weaponized by leftists – a particular target of the Sao Paulo Forum, which promotes communist and socialist policies. Now, the liberal U.S. policies of the Biden administration toward Latin America are giving way to conservative ones from the Trump administration, as electorates throughout the region are voting out leftists in a sharp swing toward right-leaning leaders and lawmakers.

Native populations, national security and transnational crime

Attention to Indigenous communities significantly affects national security and transnational crime. Cartels and Chinese gangs, in particular, target Canadian Indigenous jurisdictions, which become platforms for human, arms and drug trafficking and are used as corridors for cross-border activity.

Reservations also experience significant public safety issues, including higher crime rates, especially missing and murdered Indigenous women. While Indigenous people comprise only 5 percent of the population, their women and girls account for over 50 percent of trafficking victims.

The expanded threat is not just a Canadian problem. One study notes that some vulnerable Indigenous communities right below the Canadian border – such as the Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes of the Fort Peck Reservation in Montana – have become prime targets.

May 5, 2025: Members of the local Indigenous community and supporters gather in memory of missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls (MMIWG) outside the Alberta Legislature, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. © Getty Images

This trend has been accelerating for over a decade. Increasingly, Indigenous gangs are in active cooperation with Asian-based criminal networks. The Manitoba Warriors, for example, have been identified as supporting criminal activities with Asian transnational criminal groups. Research suggests that 88 percent of male Indigenous criminal offenders had links to gangs and other security threat groups.

Bribery, extortion and corruption are also endemic in some tribal communities. Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal are all key nodes for transnational criminal activity linked to Indigenous and foreign criminal networks. These networks pose a risk for criminal, terrorist and other national security threats.

Also of note is that tribal relations in Canada and Alaska can affect national security when it comes to the development of defense infrastructure and critical mining activities.

Challenges of governance

Legal structures intended to honor the sovereignty of tribal lands and benefit Indigenous people are increasingly exploited by criminal activity. Movements that advocate for greater tribal autonomy and self-governance also create risks. For instance, Chinese Triads have been implicated in exploiting Section 87 of the Canadian Indian Act, exempting on-reserve goods from taxation, to distribute untaxed or counterfeit cigarettes. This creates a significant revenue stream that in turn helps finance other illicit operations, including narcotics and arms trafficking.

Efforts to expand tribal control over territories that cross national borders will create additional risks. The Akwesasne Mohawk Territory, for example, which straddles the U.S.-Canada border, serves as a major smuggling corridor. The Tsawwassen First Nation, near Vancouver, is used as a smuggling route for Chinese Communist Party-linked organized crime.

Tribal activism

The late 1960s and 1970s saw an outbreak of activism among Indigenous groups that was akin to the Civil Rights and Anti-War movements. In recent years, prominent examples of activism have been associated with environmental and land-rights issues such as protests against the Keystone XL Pipeline and social justice issues like combating missing and murdered Indigenous women.

Read more by national security expert James Jay Carafano

• A new Monroe Doctrine for the Western Hemisphere?
• U.S. action in Panama signals a shift in global strategy
• Post-election Canada: What comes next with the U.S.?

Contemporary activism in the U.S. and Canada is very different. For instance, Coastal First Nations in Canada is an NGO with private and foreign funding and non-native leadership that does not represent a treaty-nation recognized under Canadian law. Many such groups in Canada and the U.S. focus on energy and environmental issues.

American political engagement

On the one hand, some U.S. conservatives find common ground with Native American communities on shared values, emphasizing community, self-reliance and commitment to strong spiritual beliefs. Many think they should be sympathetic with tribes seeking less federal government control and more independence for tribal lands.

On the other hand, conservatives oppose many aspects of identity and woke politics that are at the root of much of contemporary First Nation activism. Such political views can exacerbate poverty, criminality and mental and physical health challenges that are endemic in some Native communities.

In contrast, the American left has long felt Native Americans are a natural constituency, though shifting voting patterns show the party’s grip on the bloc, which is fairly diverse, is loosening.

In the U.S., Native American politics play a meaningful role on the national level. Since Mr. Trump resumed office, he has shown interest in Indigenous affairs and his executive orders reflect an aversion to identity politics, but also a desire to strengthen his ties with Indigenous communities. For example, he advocated for the official recognition of the Lumbee Tribe in North Carolina, which he noted was an important voting constituency for him. The administration has focused on Native American public safety, crime and border issues, paying special attention to the Alaskan tribes.

Contact us today for tailored geopolitical insights and industry-specific advisory services.